The Hamburger SV Files
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Predictions

Hamburger SV

Polymarket and Altus Alpha Predictions

Tools for professional traders.

Next Match
HSV vs Mainz
Kickoff
Sun 6 Sept, 13:30
Oracle
33.8% / 26.7% / 39.5%
Akte HSV — Club-Dossier Hamburger SV
Predictions
Deutsch
Frequently Asked Questions
What is HSV's win probability against Mainz?
The Pinnacle Oracle calculates 33.8% win probability for HSV (home).
Where does HSV stand in the table?
HSV are 16th with 0 points after 1 matchdays. Goal difference: -2.
What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.

Pinnacle Oracle

Oracle Pipeline BETA

Four stages, one question: where does HSV's probability come from — and what moves it?

HSV vs Mainz · Sun, 09/06, 01:30 PM

1

Base Model

Table + ppg

Home7.8%
Draw24%
Away68.2%

HSV: 7.8%

2

Adjustments

Statistical Intelligence

  • 🟡 HSV home 0.0pp
Home7.8%
Draw24%
Away68.2%

HSV: 7.8% (0.0pp)

3

Pinnacle Oracle

Vig-removed

Home33.8%
Draw26.7%
Away39.5%

HSV: 33.8%

4

Smart Money

Line movement

Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.

Model vs. Pinnacle: -26.0pp — Pipeline model sees HSV weaker than Pinnacle

The pipeline is transparent: Stage 1 is a simple table model, Stage 2 applies significant splits from Statistical Intelligence, Stage 3 shows what Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker in the world) says. Stage 4 (sharp-money line movement) will follow once we persist line history.

Source: Pinnacle via TheOddsAPI · Updated: Sat 5 Sept, 18:00

HSV vs Mainz Sun 6 Sept, 13:30
HSV 33.8% 2.86
Draw 26.7% 3.63
Mainz 39.5% 2.45
Spread Mainz 0 @ 1.81
Total O/U 2.75 @ 1.96 / 1.93
Margin: 3.33%
Leipzig vs HSV Sun 13 Sept, 13:30
Leipzig 67.0% 1.41
Draw 18.3% 5.16
HSV 14.6% 6.46
Spread HSV +1.25 @ 1.97
Total O/U 3.25 @ 1.95 / 1.88
Margin: 5.78%

Value Signals

No active Polymarket events for Hamburger SV. Oracle data only.

Community Forecasts

Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.

All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →

Bundesliga Table · Matchday 2

# Club MP W D L GD Pts
1 Freiburg 2 2 0 0 +4 6
2 BVB 2 2 0 0 +3 6
3 Elversberg 2 2 0 0 +2 6
4 Bayern 1 1 0 0 +4 3
5 Leverkusen 2 1 0 1 +3 3
6 Augsburg 1 1 0 0 +3 3
7 Leipzig 2 1 0 1 +1 3
8 Stuttgart 2 1 0 1 -1 3
9 Werder 2 1 0 1 -1 3
10 Koeln 2 1 0 1 -2 3
11 Eintracht 1 0 1 0 0 1
12 Mainz 1 0 1 0 0 1
13 Paderborn 2 0 1 1 -1 1
14 Union 2 0 1 1 -4 1
15 Hoffenheim 2 0 0 2 -2 0
16 HSV 1 0 0 1 -2 0
17 Schalke 04 1 0 0 1 -3 0
18 Gladbach 2 0 0 2 -4 0