The Hamburger SV Files
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Predictions

Hamburger SV

Polymarket and Altus Alpha Predictions

Tools for professional traders.

Next Match
Leipzig vs HSV
Kickoff
Sun 13 Sept, 13:30
Oracle
68.7% / 17.6% / 13.7%
Akte HSV — Club-Dossier Hamburger SV
Predictions
Deutsch
Frequently Asked Questions
What is HSV's win probability against Leipzig?
The Pinnacle Oracle calculates 13.7% win probability for HSV (away).
Where does HSV stand in the table?
HSV are 18th with 0 points after 2 matchdays. Goal difference: -7.
What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.

Pinnacle Oracle

Oracle Pipeline BETA

Four stages, one question: where does HSV's probability come from — and what moves it?

Leipzig vs HSV · Sun, 09/13, 01:30 PM

1

Base Model

Table + ppg

Home76%
Draw24%
Away0%

HSV: 0%

2

Adjustments

Statistical Intelligence

  • 🟡 HSV away 0.0pp
  • 🟡 Versus top-6 opponent 0.0pp
Home75.6%
Draw23.9%
Away0.5%

HSV: 0.5% (0.0pp)

3

Pinnacle Oracle

Vig-removed

Home68.7%
Draw17.6%
Away13.7%

HSV: 13.7%

4

Smart Money

Line movement

Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.

Model vs. Pinnacle: -13.2pp — Pipeline model sees HSV weaker than Pinnacle

The pipeline is transparent: Stage 1 is a simple table model, Stage 2 applies significant splits from Statistical Intelligence, Stage 3 shows what Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker in the world) says. Stage 4 (sharp-money line movement) will follow once we persist line history.

Source: Pinnacle via TheOddsAPI · Updated: Wed 9 Sept, 06:00

Leipzig vs HSV Sun 13 Sept, 13:30
Leipzig 68.7% 1.40
Draw 17.6% 5.48
HSV 13.7% 7.03
Spread HSV +1.25 @ 2.07
Total O/U 3.25 @ 1.90 / 1.99
Margin: 3.90%
HSV vs Koeln Sat 19 Sept, 13:30
HSV 35.7% 2.67
Draw 26.9% 3.54
Koeln 37.4% 2.55
Spread Koeln 0 @ 1.88
Total O/U 3 @ 2.01 / 1.83
Margin: 4.92%

Value Signals

No active Polymarket events for Hamburger SV. Oracle data only.

Community Forecasts

Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.

All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →

Bundesliga Table · Matchday 2

# Club MP W D L GD Pts
1 Augsburg 2 2 0 0 +6 6
2 Freiburg 2 2 0 0 +4 6
3 BVB 2 2 0 0 +3 6
4 Elversberg 2 2 0 0 +2 6
5 Mainz 2 1 1 0 +5 4
6 Bayern 2 1 1 0 +4 4
7 Leverkusen 2 1 0 1 +3 3
8 Leipzig 2 1 0 1 +1 3
9 Stuttgart 2 1 0 1 -1 3
10 Werder 2 1 0 1 -1 3
11 Koeln 2 1 0 1 -2 3
12 Paderborn 2 0 1 1 -1 1
13 Eintracht 2 0 1 1 -3 1
14 Schalke 04 2 0 1 1 -3 1
15 Union 2 0 1 1 -4 1
16 Hoffenheim 2 0 0 2 -2 0
17 Gladbach 2 0 0 2 -4 0
18 HSV 2 0 0 2 -7 0