The Hamburger SV Files
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Predictions

Hamburger SV

Polymarket and Altus Alpha Predictions

Tools for professional traders.

Akte HSV — Club-Dossier Hamburger SV
Predictions
Deutsch
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does HSV stand in the table?
HSV are 13th with 38 points after 34 matchdays. Goal difference: -14.
What is the Pinnacle Oracle?
The Oracle removes the bookmaker margin (vig) from Pinnacle odds and normalizes to 100% — the sharpest available probability estimate.

Pinnacle Oracle

Oracle Pipeline BETA

Four stages, one question: where does HSV's probability come from — and what moves it?

Leverkusen vs HSV · Sat, 05/16, 01:30 PM

1

Base Model

Table + ppg

Home56.9%
Draw24%
Away19.1%

HSV: 19.1%

2

Adjustments

Statistical Intelligence

  • 🟡 HSV away -10.2pp
  • 🟡 Versus top-6 opponent -17.0pp
Home64.9%
Draw34.6%
Away0.5%

HSV: 0.5% (-27.2pp)

3

Pinnacle Oracle

Vig-removed

Home73.9%
Draw14.6%
Away11.4%

HSV: 11.4%

4

Smart Money

Line movement

Stage 4 in development — line history will be persisted from next season.

Model vs. Pinnacle: -10.9pp — Pipeline model sees HSV weaker than Pinnacle

The pipeline is transparent: Stage 1 is a simple table model, Stage 2 applies significant splits from Statistical Intelligence, Stage 3 shows what Pinnacle (the sharpest bookmaker in the world) says. Stage 4 (sharp-money line movement) will follow once we persist line history.

Oracle data unavailable. Next update cycle shortly.

Value Signals

No active Polymarket events for Hamburger SV. Oracle data only.

Community Forecasts

Metaculus-style forecasts — no real money, fully compliant.

All 73 questions on Akte Bundesliga Forecasts →

Bundesliga Table · Matchday 34

# Club MP W D L GD Pts
1 Bayern 34 28 5 1 +86 89
2 BVB 34 22 7 5 +36 73
3 Leipzig 34 20 5 9 +19 65
4 Stuttgart 34 18 8 8 +22 62
5 Hoffenheim 34 18 7 9 +13 61
6 Leverkusen 34 17 8 9 +21 59
7 Freiburg 34 13 8 13 -6 47
8 Eintracht 34 11 11 12 -4 44
9 Augsburg 34 12 7 15 -16 43
10 Mainz 34 10 10 14 -9 40
11 Union 34 10 9 15 -14 39
12 Gladbach 34 9 11 14 -11 38
13 HSV 34 9 11 14 -14 38
14 Koeln 34 7 11 16 -14 32
15 Werder 34 8 8 18 -23 32
16 Wolfsburg 34 7 8 19 -24 29
17 Heidenheim 34 6 8 20 -31 26
18 St. Pauli 34 6 8 20 -31 26